IFK Norrkoping v Norrby IF — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Superettan · Sunday, 28 June 2026. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 54% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts IFK Norrkoping at 64%, the draw at 21% and Norrby IF at 15%, from expected goals of 2.08 and 0.91.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Superettan has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. IFK Norrkoping have 5 in 13 this season (2 of 5 at home), Norrby IF 6 in 13 (3 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 53%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 2.08 for IFK Norrkoping and 0.91 for Norrby IF. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: IFK Norrkoping season stats · Norrby IF season stats · Superettan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.