2. Deild · Saturday, 27 June 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 76% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 24% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 70% | 30% | Yes |
The result model puts Kári at 72%, the draw at 15% and Magni at 14%, from expected goals of 3.19 and 1.43.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kári have 8 in 9 this season (3 of 4 at home), Magni 7 in 9 (6 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 74% and 71%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 75% and 71%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 72%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 84%, from expected goals of 3.19 for Kári and 1.43 for Magni. Folding in 30% of that view gives 76%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Kári season stats · Magni season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.