1. Deild · Sunday, 21 June 2026. Final score 2–5 (half-time 2–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 68% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 67% | 33% | Yes |
The result model puts Grotta at 34%, the draw at 24% and Fylkir at 42%, from expected goals of 1.52 and 1.72.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 70% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Grotta have 7 in 8 this season (3 of 3 at home), Fylkir 5 in 9 (1 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 75% and 66%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 75% and 67%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 71%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.52 for Grotta and 1.72 for Fylkir. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Grotta season stats · Fylkir season stats · 1. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.