1. Deild · Wednesday, 17 June 2026. Final score 3–2 (half-time 2–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 71% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 29% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 67% | 33% | Yes |
The result model puts Vestri at 59%, the draw at 20% and Ægir at 21%, from expected goals of 2.3 and 1.33.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 71% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vestri have 5 in 9 this season (3 of 4 at home), Ægir 6 in 8 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 72%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 71%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 70%, from expected goals of 2.3 for Vestri and 1.33 for Ægir. Folding in 30% of that view gives 71%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Vestri season stats · Ægir season stats · 1. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.