J1 League · Saturday, 6 June 2026. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 48% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Mito Hollyhock at 40%, the draw at 28% and V-varen Nagasaki at 32%, from expected goals of 1.34 and 1.15.
The league sets the starting point. J1 League has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Mito Hollyhock have 9 in 19 this season (3 of 9 at home), V-varen Nagasaki 10 in 19 (4 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.34 for Mito Hollyhock and 1.15 for V-varen Nagasaki. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mito Hollyhock | 19 | 47% | 37% | 63% |
| V-varen Nagasaki | 19 | 53% | 26% | 53% |
More: Mito Hollyhock season stats · V-varen Nagasaki season stats · J1 League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.