2. Deild · Saturday, 6 June 2026. Final score 2–3 (half-time 0–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 71% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 29% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 70% | 30% | Yes |
The result model puts Fjolnir at 53%, the draw at 21% and Selfoss at 26%, from expected goals of 2.19 and 1.49.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fjolnir have 5 in 5 this season (3 of 3 at home), Selfoss 4 in 5 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 74% and 70%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 71%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 71%, from expected goals of 2.19 for Fjolnir and 1.49 for Selfoss. Folding in 30% of that view gives 71%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Fjolnir season stats · Selfoss season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.