2. Deild · Saturday, 6 June 2026. Final score 5–1 (half-time 3–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 78% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 22% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 73% | 27% | Yes |
The result model puts Fjardabyggd / Leiknir at 78%, the draw at 11% and KFG at 11%, from expected goals of 3.93 and 1.63.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fjardabyggd / Leiknir have 4 in 5 this season (2 of 2 at home), KFG 5 in 5 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 71% and 74%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 72% and 74%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 72%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 72%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 91%, from expected goals of 3.93 for Fjardabyggd / Leiknir and 1.63 for KFG. Folding in 30% of that view gives 78%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fjardabyggd / Leiknir | 5 | 80% | 80% | 60% |
| KFG | 5 | 100% | 80% | 80% |
More: Fjardabyggd / Leiknir season stats · KFG season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.