1. Deild · Friday, 5 June 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 71% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 29% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 32% | Yes |
The result model puts HK Kopavogur at 41%, the draw at 24% and Afturelding at 35%, from expected goals of 1.74 and 1.59.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 71% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. HK Kopavogur have 5 in 7 this season (2 of 4 at home), Afturelding 6 in 7 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 71% and 74%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 74% and 74%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 73%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 1.74 for HK Kopavogur and 1.59 for Afturelding. Folding in 30% of that view gives 71%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HK Kopavogur | 7 | 71% | 57% | 71% |
| Afturelding | 7 | 86% | 71% | 71% |
More: HK Kopavogur season stats · Afturelding season stats · 1. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.