Kansallinen Liiga (W) · Sunday, 31 May 2026. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–2). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 73% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 27% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts PK-35 Vantaa W at 49%, the draw at 21% and Ilves W at 30%, from expected goals of 2.17 and 1.68.
The league sets the starting point. Kansallinen Liiga (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. PK-35 Vantaa W have 6 in 7 this season (3 of 3 at home), Ilves W 6 in 7 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 73% and 73%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 72% and 73%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 72%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 72%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 74%, from expected goals of 2.17 for PK-35 Vantaa W and 1.68 for Ilves W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 73%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PK-35 Vantaa W | 7 | 86% | 71% | 57% |
| Ilves W | 7 | 86% | 57% | 71% |
More: PK-35 Vantaa W season stats · Ilves W season stats · Kansallinen Liiga (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.