Magni v Hvíti Riddarinn — prediction, stats and goal analysis

2. Deild · Sunday, 31 May 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 68% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Magni at 42%, the draw at 23% and Hvíti Riddarinn at 35%, from expected goals of 1.82 and 1.65.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Magni have 4 in 4 this season, Hvíti Riddarinn 1 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 73% and 62%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 68%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 1.82 for Magni and 1.65 for Hvíti Riddarinn. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: Magni season stats · Hvíti Riddarinn season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.