Superettan · Sunday, 31 May 2026. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 60% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts IFK Varnamo at 60%, the draw at 21% and United Nordic at 18%, from expected goals of 2.08 and 1.06.
The league sets the starting point. Superettan has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. IFK Varnamo have 7 in 9 this season (3 of 4 at home), United Nordic 6 in 9 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 2.08 for IFK Varnamo and 1.06 for United Nordic. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFK Varnamo | 9 | 78% | 67% | 56% |
| United Nordic | 9 | 67% | 56% | 78% |
More: IFK Varnamo season stats · United Nordic season stats · Superettan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.