1. Deild · Sunday, 31 May 2026. Final score 5–1 (half-time 4–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 69% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 31% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 32% | Yes |
The result model puts Afturelding at 39%, the draw at 23% and Fylkir at 37%, from expected goals of 1.71 and 1.66.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 71% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Afturelding have 5 in 6 this season (2 of 3 at home), Fylkir 3 in 6 (0 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 73% and 67%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 73% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 71%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 1.71 for Afturelding and 1.66 for Fylkir. Folding in 30% of that view gives 69%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afturelding | 6 | 83% | 67% | 67% |
| Fylkir | 6 | 50% | 0% | 17% |
More: Afturelding season stats · Fylkir season stats · 1. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.