Super League · Saturday, 30 May 2026. Final score 2–3 (half-time 0–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 55% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Chongqing Tongliang Long at 32%, the draw at 27% and Beijing Guoan at 40%, from expected goals of 1.2 and 1.37.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Chongqing Tongliang Long have 5 in 14 this season (2 of 7 at home), Beijing Guoan 9 in 14 (3 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 14 and 14 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.2 for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1.37 for Beijing Guoan. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chongqing Tongliang Long | 14 | 36% | 21% | 50% |
| Beijing Guoan | 14 | 64% | 29% | 71% |
More: Chongqing Tongliang Long season stats · Beijing Guoan season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.