Meistaradeildin · Saturday, 30 May 2026. Final score 3–2 (half-time 1–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 72% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 28% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts AB at 13%, the draw at 15% and NSI Runavik at 72%, from expected goals of 1.27 and 3.02.
The league sets the starting point. Meistaradeildin has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. AB have 6 in 11 this season (2 of 5 at home), NSI Runavik 5 in 11 (3 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 64% and 73%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 80%, from expected goals of 1.27 for AB and 3.02 for NSI Runavik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 72%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AB | 11 | 55% | 27% | 55% |
| NSI Runavik | 11 | 45% | 18% | 55% |
More: AB season stats · NSI Runavik season stats · Meistaradeildin table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.