Superettan · Saturday, 23 May 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 54% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Norrby IF at 38%, the draw at 25% and Ljungskile SK at 37%, from expected goals of 1.48 and 1.45.
The league sets the starting point. Superettan has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Norrby IF have 4 in 8 this season (2 of 3 at home), Ljungskile SK 2 in 8 (1 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.48 for Norrby IF and 1.45 for Ljungskile SK. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norrby IF | 8 | 50% | 50% | 88% |
| Ljungskile SK | 8 | 25% | 25% | 38% |
More: Norrby IF season stats · Ljungskile SK season stats · Superettan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.