2. Deild · Saturday, 23 May 2026. Final score 4–0 (half-time 4–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 76% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 24% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 73% | 27% | Yes |
The result model puts Fjardabyggd / Leiknir at 71%, the draw at 14% and Magni at 15%, from expected goals of 3.5 and 1.7.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fjardabyggd / Leiknir have 2 in 3 this season (1 of 1 at home), Magni 3 in 3 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 72%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 72% and 72%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 71%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 89%, from expected goals of 3.5 for Fjardabyggd / Leiknir and 1.7 for Magni. Folding in 30% of that view gives 76%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fjardabyggd / Leiknir | 3 | 67% | 67% | 67% |
| Magni | 3 | 100% | 67% | 100% |
More: Fjardabyggd / Leiknir season stats · Magni season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.