Superettan · Sunday, 17 May 2026. Final score 2–2 (half-time 0–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 55% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts IFK Varnamo at 58%, the draw at 23% and Norrby IF at 19%, from expected goals of 1.87 and 0.95.
The league sets the starting point. Superettan has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. IFK Varnamo have 5 in 7 this season (2 of 3 at home), Norrby IF 3 in 7 (1 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.87 for IFK Varnamo and 0.95 for Norrby IF. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFK Varnamo | 7 | 71% | 57% | 43% |
| Norrby IF | 7 | 43% | 43% | 86% |
More: IFK Varnamo season stats · Norrby IF season stats · Superettan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.