Kansallinen Liiga (W) · Sunday, 17 May 2026. Final score 2–3 (half-time 2–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 74% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 26% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts IF Gnistan at 60%, the draw at 19% and Ilves W at 21%, from expected goals of 2.5 and 1.45.
The league sets the starting point. Kansallinen Liiga (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. IF Gnistan have 5 in 5 this season (2 of 2 at home), Ilves W 5 in 5 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 74% and 74%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 73%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 76%, from expected goals of 2.5 for IF Gnistan and 1.45 for Ilves W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 74%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IF Gnistan | 5 | 100% | 80% | 60% |
| Ilves W | 5 | 100% | 60% | 80% |
More: IF Gnistan season stats · Ilves W season stats · Kansallinen Liiga (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.