1. Deild · Sunday, 17 May 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 68% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 66% | 34% | Yes |
The result model puts Ægir at 27%, the draw at 23% and Vestri at 50%, from expected goals of 1.3 and 1.87.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 71% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ægir have 2 in 3 this season (0 of 1 at home), Vestri 1 in 3 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 70% and 67%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 71%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.3 for Ægir and 1.87 for Vestri. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Ægir season stats · Vestri season stats · 1. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.