Primera Division · Monday, 11 May 2026. Final score 3–2 (half-time 2–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 44% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Sportivo Ameliano at 47%, the draw at 27% and Deportivo Recoleta at 27%, from expected goals of 1.51 and 1.07.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 39% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sportivo Ameliano have 6 in 19 this season (3 of 9 at home), Deportivo Recoleta 11 in 19 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 19 and 19 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 36% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 40%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 40%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.51 for Sportivo Ameliano and 1.07 for Deportivo Recoleta. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportivo Ameliano | 19 | 32% | 11% | 58% |
| Deportivo Recoleta | 19 | 58% | 26% | 63% |
More: Sportivo Ameliano season stats · Deportivo Recoleta season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.