J1 League · Wednesday, 6 May 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 51% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Shimizu S-pulse at 38%, the draw at 25% and Cerezo Osaka at 37%, from expected goals of 1.55 and 1.52.
The league sets the starting point. J1 League has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Shimizu S-pulse have 5 in 14 this season (2 of 6 at home), Cerezo Osaka 6 in 14 (3 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 44%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 14 and 14 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 42% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.55 for Shimizu S-pulse and 1.52 for Cerezo Osaka. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shimizu S-pulse | 14 | 36% | 14% | 57% |
| Cerezo Osaka | 14 | 43% | 0% | 43% |
More: Shimizu S-pulse season stats · Cerezo Osaka season stats · J1 League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.