1. Division · Friday, 1 May 2026. Final score 3–0 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 69% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 31% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts Stromsgodset at 61%, the draw at 19% and Strommen at 20%, from expected goals of 2.45 and 1.36.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 65% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Stromsgodset have 3 in 4 this season (2 of 2 at home), Strommen 3 in 3 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 69%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 73%, from expected goals of 2.45 for Stromsgodset and 1.36 for Strommen. Folding in 30% of that view gives 69%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stromsgodset | 4 | 75% | 25% | 75% |
| Strommen | 3 | 100% | 67% | 67% |
More: Stromsgodset season stats · Strommen season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.