1. Division · Friday, 1 May 2026. Final score 2–0 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 65% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts Haugesund at 57%, the draw at 21% and Sandnes ULF at 22%, from expected goals of 2.15 and 1.29.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 65% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Haugesund have 3 in 4 this season (1 of 1 at home), Sandnes ULF 2 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 2.15 for Haugesund and 1.29 for Sandnes ULF. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haugesund | 4 | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Sandnes ULF | 4 | 50% | 25% | 75% |
More: Haugesund season stats · Sandnes ULF season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.