J1 League · Wednesday, 29 April 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 45% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Shimizu S-pulse at 51%, the draw at 26% and V-varen Nagasaki at 23%, from expected goals of 1.54 and 0.94.
The league sets the starting point. J1 League has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Shimizu S-pulse have 3 in 12 this season (1 of 5 at home), V-varen Nagasaki 5 in 12 (2 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 39% and 44%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 41% and 44%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.54 for Shimizu S-pulse and 0.94 for V-varen Nagasaki. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shimizu S-pulse | 12 | 25% | 17% | 50% |
| V-varen Nagasaki | 12 | 42% | 25% | 42% |
More: Shimizu S-pulse season stats · V-varen Nagasaki season stats · J1 League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.