Toppserien (W) · Tuesday, 28 April 2026. Final score 2–0 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 65% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Brann W at 84%, the draw at 11% and Haugesund W at 5%, from expected goals of 3.07 and 0.69.
The league sets the starting point. Toppserien (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Brann W have 2 in 4 this season (0 of 1 at home), Haugesund W 3 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 64% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 72%, from expected goals of 3.07 for Brann W and 0.69 for Haugesund W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brann W | 4 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Haugesund W | 4 | 75% | 75% | 100% |
More: Brann W season stats · Haugesund W season stats · Toppserien (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.