Toppserien (W) · Wednesday, 1 April 2026. Final score 3–1 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 60% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Haugesund W at 38%, the draw at 24% and Fortuna Ålesund W at 38%, from expected goals of 1.65 and 1.66.
The league sets the starting point. Toppserien (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Haugesund W have 1 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Fortuna Ålesund W 1 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 1.65 for Haugesund W and 1.66 for Fortuna Ålesund W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haugesund W | 2 | 50% | 50% | 100% |
| Fortuna Ålesund W | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
More: Haugesund W season stats · Fortuna Ålesund W season stats · Toppserien (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.