Primera Division · Wednesday, 1 April 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–2). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 39% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 17%, the draw at 26% and Sportivo Ameliano at 58%, from expected goals of 0.73 and 1.6.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 37% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Club Sp. San Lorenzo have 4 in 13 this season (3 of 6 at home), Sportivo Ameliano 3 in 13 (1 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 35% and 32%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 35% and 34%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 35%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 0.73 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo and 1.6 for Sportivo Ameliano. Folding in 30% of that view gives 37%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 13 | 31% | 23% | 46% |
| Sportivo Ameliano | 13 | 23% | 8% | 38% |
More: Club Sp. San Lorenzo season stats · Sportivo Ameliano season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.