Carioca · Tuesday, 3 March 2026. Final score 0–8 (half-time 0–4). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 43% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 83% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Madureira at 26%, the draw at 30% and Flamengo at 44%, from expected goals of 0.89 and 1.26.
The league sets the starting point. Carioca has produced over 2.5 goals in 41% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Madureira have 4 in 8 this season (2 of 4 at home), Flamengo 6 in 8 (4 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 41% and 44%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 0.89 for Madureira and 1.26 for Flamengo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Madureira season stats · Flamengo season stats · Carioca table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.