Mineiro · Sunday, 1 March 2026. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 43% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts North Esporte at 42%, the draw at 24% and Uberlandia at 34%, from expected goals of 1.73 and 1.52.
The league sets the starting point. Mineiro has produced over 2.5 goals in 27% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. North Esporte have 5 in 9 this season (3 of 4 at home), Uberlandia 3 in 9 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 35% and 28%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 31%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 32%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.73 for North Esporte and 1.52 for Uberlandia. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Esporte | 9 | 56% | 33% | 78% |
| Uberlandia | 9 | 33% | 22% | 44% |
More: North Esporte season stats · Uberlandia season stats · Mineiro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.