Carioca · Sunday, 1 March 2026. Final score 2–2 (half-time 0–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 41% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts CFRJ / Maricá at 24%, the draw at 29% and Nova Iguaçu at 47%, from expected goals of 0.86 and 1.31.
The league sets the starting point. Carioca has produced over 2.5 goals in 41% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. CFRJ / Maricá have 5 in 10 this season (3 of 5 at home), Nova Iguaçu 4 in 10 (1 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 40%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 0.86 for CFRJ / Maricá and 1.31 for Nova Iguaçu. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFRJ / Maricá | 10 | 50% | 20% | 40% |
| Nova Iguaçu | 10 | 40% | 30% | 70% |
More: CFRJ / Maricá season stats · Nova Iguaçu season stats · Carioca table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.