Ratings updated 15:50 UK time · refreshed several times a day

Taça de Portugal · Saturday, 21 November 2026 · 15:00 UK

Maritimo vs Chaves: prediction and stats

Over 1.5Over 2.5Over 3.5BTTS (GG)W/D/L

81%Over 1.5 goals· very likely

89%Maritimo, league games

75%Chaves, league games

71%league

59%Over 2.5 goals· likely

78%Maritimo, league games

63%Chaves, league games

50%league

32%Over 3.5 goals· no prediction: under our 45% bar

33%Maritimo, league games

38%Chaves, league games

27%league

53%Both teams to score: No· close call

33%Maritimo, league games

38%Chaves, league games

53%league

56%Maritimo win· likely

56%Maritimo

24%Draw

20%Chaves

The model reads goals, not team news.

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CompactStats rates Maritimo vs Chaves (Taça de Portugal, Saturday, 21 November 2026) 59% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with Maritimo 56%, the draw 24% and Chaves 20%.

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Form this season

Maritimo

Over 2.5 this season · league games

All (9)78%

Home (4)75%

Away (5)80%

Home games (4)

Last 4●●●●● = went over 2.5

	For	Against
Goals a game	1.0	1.8

Won 1 · drew 1 · lost 2 · both scored in 50%

Chaves

Over 2.5 this season · league games

All (8)63%

Home (4)75%

Away (4)50%

Away games (4)

Last 4●●●●● = went over 2.5

	For	Against
Goals a game	0.5	2.0

Won 0 · drew 1 · lost 3 · both scored in 50%

Latest results

Maritimo

23 OctAVitória SC PrimL5–0

18 OctAAlcochetense TaçaW1–2

10 OctHFC Porto PrimL1–2

19 SeptAGIL Vicente PrimD1–1

14 SeptAMoreirense PrimL3–1

5 SeptHBenfica PrimL0–3

Chaves

23 OctHVizela Liga W2–1

16 OctHOs Marialvas TaçaW2–1

11 OctALusitânia Lourosa Liga D1–1

4 OctAFarense Liga L4–0

20 SeptAGuarda TaçaW2–3

13 SeptHFeirense Liga W1–0

First and second half

	This game	Maritimo	Chaves	League
Goal in the 1st half	67%	66%	66%	68%
Goal in the 2nd half	81%	88%	88%	77%
Goal in both halves	56%	56%	58%	53%

Half with most goals: 2nd half 45% this game (league: 2nd half 44%).

This game = our chance. Maritimo: last 50 games, Chaves: last 50 games, every competition. League = last season and this season.

Head to head

15 May 26Maritimo 1–3 ChavesO2.5

11 Jan 26Chaves 2–3 MaritimoO2.5

2 Feb 25Chaves 1–1 MaritimoU2.5

25 Aug 24Maritimo 1–1 ChavesU2.5

5 Feb 23Chaves 2–1 MaritimoO2.5

15 Aug 22Maritimo 1–2 ChavesO2.5

Things worth knowing

Maritimo return after about 4 weeks off; form streaks reset over long breaks.
Chaves return after about 4 weeks off.

More: Maritimo season stats · Chaves season stats · Taça de Portugal and every competition we cover

Built from both teams’ form this season, last season’s record and the league’s level, plus a goal model, checked against real results.

What our percentages mean

They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.