Ratings updated 21:07 UK time · refreshed several times a day
Liga Pro · Sunday, 8 November 2026 · 21:00 UK

Libertad vs Emelec: prediction and stats

71%Over 1.5 goals· very likely
65%Libertad, league games
71%Emelec, league games
70%league
Libertad Over 1.5 in 4 straight at home
55%Under 2.5 goals· likely
50%Libertad, league games
74%Emelec, league games
55%league
Libertad Over 2.5 in 3 straight at home
Libertad Over 2.5 in 5 consecutive matches (all venues)
23%Over 3.5 goals· no prediction: under our 45% bar
24%Libertad, league games
11%Emelec, league games
24%league
51%Both teams to score: Yes· close call
47%Libertad, league games
43%Emelec, league games
51%league
57%Libertad win· likely
57%Libertad
24%Draw
18%Emelec

The model reads goals, not team news.

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CompactStats rates Libertad vs Emelec (Liga Pro, Sunday, 8 November 2026) 45% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with Libertad 57%, the draw 24% and Emelec 18%.

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Form this season

Libertad

Over 2.5 this season · league games
All (34)50%
Home (17)53%
Away (17)47%
Home games (17)
Last 5●●●●●● = went over 2.5
ForAgainst
Goals a game1.60.9
Won 10 · drew 3 · lost 4 · both scored in 41%

Emelec

Over 2.5 this season · league games
All (35)26%
Home (18)28%
Away (17)24%
Away games (17)
Last 5●●●●●● = went over 2.5
ForAgainst
Goals a game0.81.5
Won 3 · drew 5 · lost 9 · both scored in 41%

Latest results

Libertad

25 OctALeones del Norte LigProL4–1
17 OctHGuayaquil City FC LigProW4–0
9 OctHLeones del Norte LigProW3–0
20 SeptAEmelec LigProW1–2
14 SeptHIndependiente del Valle LigProL2–3
7 SeptADeportivo Cuenca LigProW0–1

Emelec

31 OctHLeones del Norte LigProL0–2
25 OctHGuayaquil City FC LigProL0–1
18 OctALeones del Norte LigProW1–3
10 OctAGuayaquil City FC LigProL3–2
20 SeptHLibertad LigProL1–2
13 SeptAMacara LigProL1–0

First and second half

This gameLibertadEmelecLeague
Goal in the 1st half67%68%62%68%
Goal in the 2nd half76%76%78%75%
Goal in both halves51%52%50%51%

Half with most goals: 2nd half 44% this game (league: 2nd half 43%).

This game = our chance. Libertad: last 50 games, Emelec: last 50 games, every competition. League = last season and this season.

Head to head

20 Sept 26Emelec 1–2 LibertadO2.5
4 Sept 26Libertad 1–1 EmelecU2.5
10 May 26Emelec 1–1 LibertadU2.5
4 Aug 25Libertad 1–2 EmelecO2.5
12 Apr 25Emelec 1–1 LibertadU2.5
30 Nov 24Libertad 2–1 EmelecO2.5

More: Libertad season stats · Emelec season stats · Liga Pro table and form

Built from both teams’ form this season, last season’s record and the league’s level, plus a goal model, checked against real results.

What our percentages mean

They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.