Ratings updated 21:07 UK time · refreshed several times a day

Ligue 1 · Sunday, 8 November 2026 · 19:45 UK

Lens vs Marseille: prediction and stats

Over 1.5Over 2.5Over 3.5BTTS (GG)W/D/L

81%Over 1.5 goals· very likely

78%Lens, league games

88%Marseille, league games

73%league

Lens Over 1.5 in 3 straight at home

59%Over 2.5 goals· likely

78%Lens, league games

63%Marseille, league games

57%league

36%Over 3.5 goals· no prediction: under our 45% bar

33%Lens, league games

50%Marseille, league games

36%league

56%Both teams to score: Yes· likely

78%Lens, league games

50%Marseille, league games

54%league

52%Lens win· close call

52%Lens

24%Draw

24%Marseille

The model reads goals, not team news.

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CompactStats rates Lens vs Marseille (Ligue 1, Sunday, 8 November 2026) 59% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with Lens 52%, the draw 24% and Marseille 24%.

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Form this season

Lens

Over 2.5 this season · league games

All (9)78%

Home (4)75%

Away (5)80%

Home games (4)

Last 4●●●●● = went over 2.5

	For	Against
Goals a game	2.3	1.3

Won 3 · drew 0 · lost 1 · both scored in 75%

Marseille

Over 2.5 this season · league games

All (8)63%

Home (4)100%

Away (4)25%

Away games (4)

Last 4●●●●● = went over 2.5

	For	Against
Goals a game	1.8	1.3

Won 2 · drew 0 · lost 2 · both scored in 25%

Latest results

Lens

30 OctALille Ligue1L1–0

24 OctHParis FC Ligue1W2–1

21 OctAClub Brugge KV UCLL3–0

17 OctAEstac Troyes Ligue1W1–3

13 OctHSporting CP UCLL0–2

9 OctHLyon Ligue1W2–1

Marseille

25 OctHLe Havre Ligue1W4–3

22 OctASturm Graz UELL1–0

18 OctAAngers Ligue1W2–5

15 OctHOlympiakos Piraeus UELL0–1

11 OctAEstac Troyes Ligue1W0–2

20 SeptHParis Saint Germain Ligue1L1–2

First and second half

	This game	Lens	Marseille	League
Goal in the 1st half	73%	80%	76%	70%
Goal in the 2nd half	83%	96%	88%	79%
Goal in both halves	65%	78%	64%	57%

Half with most goals: 2nd half 47% this game (league: 2nd half 47%).

This game = our chance. Lens: last 50 games, Marseille: last 50 games, every competition. League = last season and this season.

Head to head

24 Jan 26Marseille 3–1 LensO2.5

25 Oct 25Lens 2–1 MarseilleO2.5

8 Mar 25Marseille 0–1 LensU2.5

23 Nov 24Lens 1–3 MarseilleO2.5

28 Apr 24Marseille 2–1 LensO2.5

12 Nov 23Lens 1–0 MarseilleU2.5

More: Lens season stats · Marseille season stats · Ligue 1 table and form

Built from both teams’ form this season, last season’s record and the league’s level, plus a goal model, checked against real results.

What our percentages mean

They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.